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By Elizabeth M. Lynch, October 1, 2009

China does very few public celebrations haphazardly and yesterday’s National Day Parade, marking the 60^th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, was no exception. With months of pain-staking practice, teaching participants to march in perfect formation and training them to change formations at the drop of a hat to create intricate symbols and slogans, the 2009 National Day spectacle will be the military parade by which all future military parades are judged.

Women Soldiers in Hot Pink, October 1, 2009

But if you were looking for the subtle artistry of the Beijing Olympics’ Opening Ceremony, forget about it.  This parade was about military might and lots of it.  As if out of a hip-hop video, President Hu Jintao rolled his bad-self onto the scene in a black limousine, standing up through the sunroof and pugnaciously shouting at each of the military branches as his car drove by.  Even the women of the parade were flexing their military muscles.  Don’t let those hot pink skirt suits fool you; with guns drawn, these ladies were ready to play with the boys.  The Rockettes should be afraid, very afraid.

Most interesting though was what President Hu Jintao was wearing or in the alternative, what no other Chinese leader was wearing: a Mao suit.  Did President Hu not get the memo to wear a boring black western suit with some version of an equally uninspiring maroon tie?  Or was he just throwing all caution to the wind, blazing his own path?  In 2005, the fashion world decreed that the Mao suit’s peak was reached; that it was going the way of the fedora, in other words, to the scrapheap of fashion.  But recently the fedora has made a comeback among the hipsters in places like Williamsburg and Wicker Park.  Does President Hu sense an emerging trend amongst the hipsters that even the editors of

Former President of China or Leader of the Hipsters?

Vogue and GQ are missing?  Former Chinese president Jiang Zemen rocked the old lady-style glasses during his tenure and since then, such glasses are ubiquitous among the hipster set.  Will President Hu do for the Mao suit what President Jiang did for the old lady-style glasses?  Perhaps. Expect to see Mao suits soon on a hipster near you.

All in all, the Chinese should be very proud of yesterday’s festivities.  The parade was more than just impressive – it was a powerful reminder of how far China has come in the past 60 years.  The only thing we at China Law & Policy thought was missing was Matt Lauer and Al Roker and their endless commentary about every unimportant, but yet fascinating detail of the parade.  Perhaps for the 70^th anniversary.  And yes, Matt Lauer and Al Roker would definitely wear Mao suits for the event.

Matt Lauer and Al Roker of the Today Show dressed in Rhythmic Gymnastics outfits for the Beijing Olympics

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By Elizabeth M. Lynch, September 30, 2009

Chairman Mao Zedong proclaims the founding of the PRC, Oct. 1, 1949

October 1 marks the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China and to all our friends in China, China Law & Policy wishes you a happy birthday!

China’s history spans over 2,000 years, but the existence of China as a communist country has only been for the past 60.  Up until 1911, China was ruled by various different Chinese dynasties.  The last imperial dynasty, the Qing, ruled China from 1644 until its overthrow in 1911 (The Last Empror tells the story of the final days of the Qing).  While the Kuomintang (pronounced Gwo-Min-Dang and also known in English as the Nationalist Party) nominally ruled China, control really rested with the various Chinese warlords.  It was not until 1927 that Nationalist leader and Republic of China president, Chiang Kai-shek, was able to eliminate the warlords and truly unify a modern China.

However, while the Nationalists unified the country, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which was founded in 1921 as

The Last Emperor of China, Child Emperor Puyi, 1909 (3 years old)

an urban intellectual movement, was quickly becoming a revolution in the countryside under the leadership of Mao Zedong.  Soon, the Nationalists had to contended with the growing forces and guerilla tactics of the CCP, beginning the Chinese Civil War.  However, both sides came to a truce in order to fight the Japanese invasion and World War II (1937-1945).

At the conclusion of the War, the Nationalists and the CCP resumed their civil war.  By 1949, CCP victory was all but certain and the Nationalist forces began to flee to Taiwan.

Sixty years ago, On October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong stood on the gate of Tiananmen in Beijing and declared the People’s Republic of China.

60th Aniiversary festivities have already started in Beijing and will continue throughout the day Thursday.  Pictures have yet to be released from the celebrations (it started 10 AM Beijing time), but Reuters has a great live blog going.  According to Reuters, President Hu Jintao has dusted off his Mao suit and is going retro!  Only question remains – is it a blue, green or a black Mao suit? Inquiring minds want to know.

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By Elizabeth M. Lynch, September 21, 2009

The United States is not the only country that will face a potential leadership change in 2012.  Under the Chinese Constitution, the President of the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”) is limited to two consecutive five-year terms,

Heir Apparent? Current Vice President of China, Xi Jinping

forcing the current Chinese president, Hu Jintao (pronounced Who Gin-Tao), to step down in 2012.  This past weekend saw a setback for his presumed successor, Xi Jinping (pronounced She Gin-Ping).

Unlike the U.S., a change in leadership in China is anything but apparent and requires the successor to simultaneously hold three positions:  General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (“CCP”); President of the PRC, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.  Only by filling these three roles is the individual considered the paramount leader.  The person to fill these posts is hand-selected by the current CCP leadership, even for President of the PRC, which is arguably not a party position.  But in a country with one-party rule, the National People’s Congress of the PRC (“NPC”) merely confirms the successor chosen by the Party leadership.  Click here for an in-depth illustration of the Chinese government and party structure.

While the next leader of the PRC will be only the fifth since the PRC’s founding in 1949, the road to that position is fairly settled.  First is the presumed leader’s appointment to the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee.  The Politburo Standing Committee, currently made up of nine members, is the highest-ranking decision making body of both the Party and the Chinese government.  Second is the individual’s “election” by the NPC to the position of vice-president of the PRC (again more a rubber stamp of the Party’s selection than an actual election).  Finally, the individual, usually three years prior to the change in leadership, is appointed to the vice-chairmanship of the Central Military Commission (CMC) by the CCP.  The CMC controls the People’s Liberation Army and while there is a Party CMC and a government CMC that is supposed to be independent from the Party CMC, the two are identical, with the same people filling the same positions in both CMCs.  Although nominally accountable to the NPC, in reality, the government CMC answers to the Party.

Xi Jinping, 56, just needed the final appointment of vice-chair of the CMC to be solidly on the road to paramount leader.  In 2007, he was appointed to the Politburo and 2008, elected vice-president.  But this past week, in a shock to most China-watchers, the CCP closed its annual meeting without designating a new vice-chair of the CMC.  Current President Hu was appointed to the vice-chairmanship of the CMC three years prior to his accession to top leader.  The same was true of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.  Is China in the wake of a succession crisis?

Some argue no; that the pattern established by Mr. Xi’s predecessors is not set in stone; perhaps he will be appointed vice-chair of the CMC next year.  But what is causing this delay?

Many speculate that there is dissension amongst the top ranks of the Party as to who should be the paramount leader in 2012.  Underneath the veneer of uniformity and consensus that the Party maintains to the outside world, lies at least

Looking over the rice fields, Vice Premier Li Keqiang - President Hu's Protegee

two factions that often wrestle for control.  Interestingly, Mr. Xi is not the chosen heir of President Hu Jintao.  Instead, President Hu’s protégé has been Li Keqiang (pronounced Lee Kah-Chiang), a mentee of his from when he headed up the Chinese Communist Youth League.  Mr. Li was appointed to the Politburo at the same time as Mr. Xi but was ranked lower in command of that body.  Then in 2008, when Mr. Xi was elected to the office of Vice President, Mr. Li was elected as Vice-Premier, signaling that Mr. Li would take over the premiership in 2012.

While Mr. Li is a member of President Hu’s faction of “Youth Leaguers,” Mr. Xi is a member of former President Jiang Zemin’s “Shanghai Clique.” As Cheng Li of the Brookings Institute points out, there is a big difference between the two factions.  The Youth Leaguers are more concerned about the growing inequities between the rich and poor in China and providing a better social safety net for those areas of China negatively impacted by its quick economic rise.  The Shanghai Clique on the other hand stresses economic development, high GDP, and continuing China’s integration into the world economy.  Currently, the CCP leadership is evenly split between the two factions.

Furthermore, since ascending to the vice-presidency, Mr. Xi has at times been outspoken of China’s foreign critics, contrary to the diplomatic image that President Hu works hard to portray.  While on a state visit to Mexico and before a crowd of overseas Chinese, Mr. Xi criticized China’s critics stating that “a few foreigners with full bellies who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country.”

However, Mr. Xi has the support of the powerful Shanghai Clique and appears to, at least in the past, have had the support of President Hu and the Youth Leaguers since Mr. Xi was appointed to the Politburo and elected to the vice-presidency.  Mr. Xi’s appointment to vice-chair of the CMC has likely been postponed, affording the leadership time to work out fundamental issues pertaining to the direction of China is this current economic crisis.

While what happens in the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party is anyone’s guess, most likely Mr. Xi will become paramount leader in 2012.

Let's Shake on It - Former PRC President Jiang Zemin and Current PRC President Hu Jintao